A new report indicates that President Donald Trump’s announced “double blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz is already faltering, with tracking data showing vessels moving through the strategic waterway despite White House claims of a successful interdiction.
The blockade, announced on Truth Social following failed negotiations between U.S. envoys JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Iranian officials over the weekend, was intended to pressure Tehran amid the ongoing 7-week war. But less than 24 hours after its implementation, public shipping data contradicts U.S. Central Command’s assertion that no ships made it past the blockade.
“During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around and re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman,” Central Command said in a statement.
However, according to tracking data from the trade analysis firm Kepler, multiple vessels passed through the strait on Monday, both before and after the 10 a.m. Eastern deadline. Among them were the Christiana and the Elpus, both of which appeared to have departed from Iranian ports and were carrying Iranian products, according to the data. Some of the vessels that transited are under U.S. government sanctions.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil passes, has been a central flashpoint in the conflict. Trump’s plan, which he described as a “double blockade,” has failed to attract international support. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to participate, saying, “We’re not supporting the blockade. My decision has been very clear…we’re not getting dragged into the war.”
French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to sidestep the U.S. entirely, organizing what he called a “strictly defensive mission” with the United Kingdom and other nations to restore freedom of navigation separately from the warring parties.
The lack of allied backing means the U.S. would have to enforce the blockade unilaterally, a task analysts say may be beyond current U.S. military assets in the region.
“Based on those military assets, we don’t have the capability to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, which means we’re not really able to block it,” said Ana Kasparian on The Young Turks. “And blocking it would have some pretty serious repercussions for the global economy.”
Saudi Arabia, which initially urged Trump to confront Iran, has now pleaded with the administration to avoid the blockade entirely. According to Arab officials who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, Riyadh fears that a U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz could provoke Iran-backed Houthi rebels to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a separate chokepoint critical to Saudi oil exports.
“The Saudis don’t want that because it would destroy them,” Ana said. “It would completely destroy, really, the one and only way the Saudis make money.”
Ana described the blockade as little more than bluster from a president with no credibility.
“Honestly, I think that what we’ve seen with Trump, his threats about the Strait of Hormuz and all of that, it’s just bluster. He’s bluffing,” Ana said. “And I don’t know what he thinks he’s accomplishing by doing that because no one trusts him. The American people don’t believe anything that comes out of his mouth.”
Ana added that the damage to U.S. credibility extends to the negotiating table. Trump has signaled a desire for further talks, with potential locations including Europe or Islamabad, where Pakistan mediated discussions just last weekend.
“What’s even worse is that the Iranians don’t trust him at all,” Ana said. “So how are you supposed to engage in good-faith negotiations when you don’t trust the other side at all, and you think they’re literally preparing to attack you again in the middle of peace talks, which the U.S. has done not once, but twice?”
The economic consequences of the conflict and the threat of a blockade are already materializing. The latest inflation report shows consumer prices up 4%, with gas prices rising significantly. Analysts warn that further disruption to oil shipments through the strait could drive prices higher, fueling inflation both domestically and globally.
“It is not a good look for the U.S., especially since there was nothing that the U.S. was going to gain in entering this war in the first place,” Ana said.
As of Tuesday, it remained unclear how the two sanctioned vessels managed to transit the Strait, whether they were allowed through due to timing, or whether the blockade was never fully operational.
“It could be the case that they were allowed to travel the Strait for that reason,” Ana said. “Or it could be that Trump was bluffing. He didn’t have the capacity to do a double blockade of the Hormuz Strait and instead decided to play this ridiculous game of rhetoric and chicken to see if the Iranians would cave. But the Iranians aren’t stupid.”
